Overview
- Trump told reporters the payments would start around the middle of 2026 and be aimed at moderate- and middle‑income Americans.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the payouts require legislation and could take the form of tax changes rather than direct checks, with an income cap discussed near $100,000.
- Independent estimates suggest the proposal would cost hundreds of billions of dollars—roughly $300 billion to $600 billion—exceeding likely tariff receipts even after 2025’s surge.
- The Supreme Court is weighing the administration’s use of emergency powers for sweeping tariffs, and an adverse ruling could force refunds to importers and erase funds for any rebate.
- Prediction markets now price the chance of near‑term payouts at about 1%–2%, as Republicans debate whether to return tariff revenue to households or use it to reduce the deficit.