Overview
- Trump says $2,000 per-person payments funded by tariff revenue could go out around mid-2026, framing them as a tariff “dividend.”
- Independent estimates from the Tax Foundation and Yale’s Budget Lab project tariff receipts well below the cost of broad $2,000 payments, with modeled costs ranging from about $280 billion to more than $600 billion.
- The Supreme Court is reviewing the administration’s tariff authority under IEEPA after skeptical oral arguments, and analysts say a ruling could invalidate a large share of the revenue source.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicates eligibility would be limited to working families under income thresholds, and he says Congress must authorize any checks.
- Economists warn the payouts could stoke inflation and push up Treasury yields, while prediction markets assign low odds to near-term payments absent a clear economic emergency.