Overview

• On July 9, Trump announced 50% duties on Brazilian goods effective August 1 to pressure Brazil’s Supreme Court over Jair Bolsonaro’s trial
• President Lula will sign Brazil’s new reciprocal tariff law on Monday and impose matching 50% tariffs on US imports
• Public opinion and major media outlets have rallied behind Lula, deepening Bolsonaro’s isolation ahead of a possible conviction
• Economists, including Justin Wolfers, and trading partners condemn the move as politically driven and warn that higher costs will fall on consumers
• Japan, South Korea and China are fast-tracking new trade alliances to reduce reliance on unpredictable US policies