Overview
- President Donald Trump told CNN on November 8 that a return to full-scale war with Iran is "very improbable" if Tehran signs a "very strong" agreement.
- Trump also said he could order renewed strikes if circumstances change and repeatedly boasted about past U.S. military pressure on Iran.
- Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on state television that mediators stopped traveling after the U.S. midterm results, putting diplomatic talks on hold.
- Reporting shows mediation and diplomatic activity had intensified before the midterms but slowed after the election shock, leaving talks paused rather than concluded.
- The pause matters for civilians and markets because higher oil prices have already affected U.S. politics and the stalled process leaves the region fragile until mediators resume travel or a binding deal is reached.