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Trump Reopens China AI Chip Sales, Lifting AMD’s 2026 Prospects

Restored China access positions AMD for a 2026 earnings lift, with software traction strengthening its pitch to AI buyers.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump approved a policy change that lets Nvidia, AMD and Intel sell advanced AI chips to Chinese customers.
  • AMD had been shut out of China since April 2025, taking an $800 million inventory charge and losing access to a market that was nearly a quarter of its 2024 revenue, or about $6.2 billion.
  • Wall Street forecasts call for AMD earnings of $3.97 per share in 2025, up 20%, and $6.46 in 2026, up 62%, with some commentary suggesting upside if China sales resume quickly.
  • AMD says it is on track for $34 billion in 2025 revenue, up 31% year over year, as its shares have gained about 78% this year despite a 19% pullback from an Oct. 29 peak.
  • Software momentum and tight GPU supply at Nvidia frame the competition: AMD reports ROCm downloads up tenfold year over year, while Nvidia’s data center revenue reached $51.2 billion in its latest quarter versus AMD’s $4.3 billion.