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Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh, Setting Up a Test for Fed Policy and Independence

Confirmation will test Fed independence, with dovish rate signals set against a push to shrink the balance sheet.

Overview

  • Warsh, a former Fed governor, was formally named Friday to succeed Jerome Powell in May, pending Senate confirmation.
  • His crisis-era record shows hawkish warnings on inflation, yet recent comments endorse 2026 rate cuts, leaving investors unsure of his policy path.
  • He has long urged a much smaller Fed balance sheet, a shift analysts say could lift long‑term and mortgage rates even if short‑term rates fall.
  • Early reactions pointed to a stronger dollar, slumping precious metals, and a steeper yield curve as traders priced in higher long‑run borrowing costs.
  • The confirmation faces political crosscurrents, including a DOJ probe into Powell, a threatened Senate hold by Thom Tillis, and questions about the Fed’s autonomy after Trump’s public pressure and weekend joke about “suing” Warsh over rates.