Overview
- The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report puts November unemployment at 4.6%, a four‑year high, with job growth at its weakest pace since the Great Recession outside the pandemic period.
- President Trump said the rate was 4.5% and credited the increase to large federal workforce reductions, asserting 270,000 eliminated positions and suggesting those workers are moving into private jobs.
- New analysis finds his math off: rehiring 271,000 federal workers would lower the jobless rate only to roughly 4.4%, not to 2.5% or zero, which would require millions more jobs.
- Private‑sector hiring has been notably weak in 2025, particularly after April’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, undercutting claims that government job cuts are being offset by business hiring.
- Other gauges show a cooling market, including job losses in three of the past six months, a five‑year low in voluntary quits, sector mismatches, and Black unemployment rising above 8% in November.