Overview

• Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets show Trump leading Harris with odds favoring Trump's victory, despite traditional polls indicating a tighter race.
• Analysts have identified significant wash trading on Polymarket, raising concerns about the accuracy of its reported trading volumes and odds.
• Polymarket's offshore operations and blockchain-based platform have attracted scrutiny, with accusations of manipulation by large traders.
• Kalshi, operating legally in the U.S., also shows Trump as the favorite but attributes differences from polls to faster information aggregation.
• Despite controversies, prediction markets have gained mainstream attention, with significant financial activity and media coverage influencing public perception.