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Trump Leads GOP Nomination Race Ahead of Iowa Caucus

Abortion Absent as Key Issue, Christie Drops Out, Cold Weather Could Impact Voter Turnout

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks during the Republican presidential debate hosted by CNN at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S. January 10, 2024. Credit: REUTERS/Mike Segar
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DES MOINES, IOWA - JANUARY 10: Republican presidential candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley participate in the CNN Republican Presidential Primary Debate in Sheslow Auditorium at Drake University on January 10, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa. DeSantis and Haley both qualified for this final debate before the Iowa caucuses, while former President Donald Trump declined to participate and instead held a simultaneous town hall event live on FOX News. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Former President Donald Trump is leading the Republican nomination race for the 2024 presidential election, with a commanding lead of over 30 points in Iowa. His main challengers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, are competing for second place.
  • Trump's campaign has set a benchmark for success in Iowa at 13 points, which would break the record for the largest victory margin in the state's caucus history.
  • Despite Trump's lead, the issue of abortion has largely been absent in the lead-up to the Iowa Republican caucuses, with GOP voters citing concerns about the border, the economy, and America's standing in the world as their top issues.
  • Chris Christie, the only serious candidate who was running against Trump, dropped out of the race, potentially paving the way for a strong showing by Nikki Haley in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • Trump's campaign has set up a data and ground game of nearly 2,000 precinct captains throughout Iowa, aiming to mobilize supporters on Election Day. However, sub-zero temperatures forecasted for Monday night could potentially suppress voter turnout.