Overview

• Releasing its World Economic Outlook, the IMF warns of a somber growth path with rising protectionism and political shocks, and cautions that a sharp market reversal is possible if AI profit hopes fall short.
• Global risk assets turned lower on Tuesday after a brief rally, with Wall Street sliding, gold previously hitting records, and the dollar pushing the real back near R$5.50 as investors awaited remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a proposed 100% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods “does not need to happen” but accused Beijing of undermining the global economy after new export curbs, while China imposed sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean.
• In Brasília, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the government may freeze more than R$7 billion in parliamentary amendments to close a revenue gap and reiterated there is no plan to change the 2026 fiscal target as he moves to discuss the LDO with Congress.
• Recent stress in Brazilian assets was linked to an offshore sell‑off in Raízen bonds that lifted Brazil’s CDS and pressured FX and local rates, leaving investors focused on offshore bond trading and broader diplomatic signals.