Overview

• President Trump has declined to endorse either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton despite repeated appeals from Cornyn’s camp.
• Ken Paxton leads in multiple public polls, including a May Texas Southern University survey showing him at 43 percent versus Cornyn’s 34 percent.
• Internal polling from Cornyn’s supporters finds a potential Trump endorsement would yield only marginal gains for the senator.
• The Cook Political Report moved its 2026 Texas Senate race rating from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" amid the heated GOP primary.
• Cornyn allies warn that nominating Paxton could hand Democrats an unprecedented opportunity in statewide contests.