Overview
- Trump said his administration is preparing ground attacks against cartels in Mexico, citing the recent U.S. operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores.
- After a Jan. 12 call with Trump, President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly ruled out a unilateral U.S. intervention and said bilateral work continues under Mexican sovereignty, adding that fentanyl crossings have fallen by about 50%.
- Analysts disagree on the likelihood of action, with several deeming a Venezuela-style invasion improbable while others warn limited U.S. strikes or unilateral operations cannot be excluded.
- Polymarket opened a contract on a U.S. attack in Mexico, with traders assigning up to a 25% chance by year‑end under a definition that includes bombs, drones, or missiles striking Mexican territory.
- In parallel diplomacy, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pressed Mexico’s foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, for “tangible results” in counternarcotics efforts, signaling Washington’s heightened pressure.