Overview

• The Fed’s FOMC kept its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell leaving the door open to cuts in September.
• July payrolls rose by just 73,000 jobs and prior months were revised down by 258,000 positions, driving market odds of a Fed rate cut before year-end above 93%.
• Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented from the decision to maintain rates, arguing that softer labor data justified modest reductions.
• President Trump ordered the immediate dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating employment statistics.
• Trump called on the Fed’s Board of Governors to assume control over monetary policy if Powell does not enact substantial rate cuts.