Overview

• After meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN, President Trump said Ukraine could regain all occupied territory with European support and labeled Russia a "paper tiger."
• The Kremlin rejected the assessment, with Dmitry Peskov calling Ukraine’s potential to retake land "deeply mistaken" and insisting Russia is a "bear."
• U.S. officials said the rhetoric does not signal new American military commitments, putting heightened pressure on European allies to expand support for Kyiv.
• Analysts and officials cited indicators of Russian strain, including ISW data on heavy casualties for limited gains, IEA-reported declines in oil revenue, a proposed VAT hike to 22%, and fuel shortages linked to Ukrainian strikes on refineries.
• Zelenskyy welcomed the shift as a morale boost, while aides said Trump had been briefed on updated intelligence; Trump also urged NATO to shoot down intruding Russian aircraft.