Overview

• The Oct. 10–12 Morning Consult poll shows 45% approval and 53% disapproval for a net −8, tying the president’s second-term low.
• The federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and a Washington Post survey found 47% blame Republicans and Trump compared with 30% who blame Democrats.
• The Senate has failed seven times to advance a House Republican bill to reopen the government through November 21.
• ActiVote findings highlight polarization, with 94% of left-leaning voters disapproving and 92% of right-leaning voters approving, limiting large opinion shifts.
• Strategists warn that persistent sub-majority approval and shutdown backlash could complicate Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms.