Overview

• Major national surveys between June 26 and July 2 show approval levels from 40 to 47 percent and net ratings ranging from –6 to –16 points.
• Civiqs state-level data on July 4 finds 29 states with net negative approval, with Trump’s highest standing in Wyoming (+44) and his lowest in Hawaii (–47).
• His average second-term approval stands at 43 percent, slightly above his 41 percent first-term average and outperforming recent presidential benchmarks.
• Hispanic support improved from a net –37 in May to –30 in late June while approval among Black voters plunged to –70 and Gen Z fell to –41.
• Tariff policy and inflation remain the top drivers of volatility but an Israel-Iran cease-fire produced his strongest national security approval since May.