Overview
- Under the outline described by participants, the U.S. will cancel most threatened tariff hikes, pause new tech restrictions on partially Chinese-owned firms, and hold off sanctions on China’s commercial shipping.
- China will pause new rare-earth export curbs for roughly a year, step up fentanyl interdictions, and resume purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods.
- President Trump has framed the understanding as subject to annual review and potential renewal, signaling a short time horizon and limited scope.
- Verification and enforcement remain unclear as key issues such as industrial subsidies, market access barriers, and cyber espionage were left unaddressed.
- The USTR opened a probe into China’s 2020 Phase One compliance days before the summit, and analysts warn rare-earth supply vulnerabilities persist despite the one-year pause.