Overview

• The Trump administration continues to vet competing proposals to secure heavy rare earth deposits in Myanmar for U.S. defense manufacturing without endorsing any formal policy change
• Options under consideration range from brokering a peace deal between the military junta and the Kachin Independence Army to bypassing the junta and dealing directly with the rebels controlling key mines
• Last week’s selective lifting of sanctions on several junta-linked individuals and firms did not signal a broader shift in U.S. policy, according to administration statements
• Proposed measures include easing threatened tariffs, appointing a special envoy for rare earth diplomacy, and collaborating with Quad allies to build processing infrastructure
• Analysts warn that Myanmar’s remote terrain, fragile security environment, and potential Chinese interference pose major hurdles to establishing a viable new supply chain