Overview

• The Pentagon’s AUKUS review, led by Elbridge Colby, marks the first time partners have tested the pact against hard military and strategic realities.
• US submarine yards have been producing barely 1.2 Virginia-class boats per year, well below the rate needed to meet US Navy requirements let alone supply Australia.
• Inserting ex-US boats to bridge a capability gap forced Australia to plan for operating two distinct classes of nuclear-powered submarines with different reactor systems.
• The Trump administration is expected to demand a public Australian commitment to join a conflict with China before approving any submarine transfers.
• Without a dramatic ramp-up in US shipbuilding capacity, America is unlikely to spare any Virginia-class submarines for Australia.