Overview

• The Trump administration has launched a formal review of the 2021 AUKUS agreement, marking its first in-depth assessment against military and strategic realities.
• US submarine construction yards currently deliver about 1.2 Virginia-class vessels per year, falling well short of the 2.3 needed to meet American requirements and provide extras for Australia.
• Pentagon reviewer Elbridge Colby is expected to determine that Washington cannot spare Virginia-class submarines without weakening the US Navy’s own fleet.
• Canberra has not publicly pledged to use any US-built submarines in support of a potential conflict with China, a commitment the Trump team is likely to demand.
• Operating both US-built Virginia-class and future Australian-built SSN-AUKUS submarines presents major technical and logistical challenges for the Royal Australian Navy.