Overview

• President Trump’s ultimatum triggers 100% tariffs on Russian goods and matching secondary duties on oil-importing partners if Moscow fails to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire within 50 days.
• The tariff threat officially took effect on July 17 as the administration moved to formalize unprecedented duties after extending earlier deadlines.
• Administration officials acknowledge key enforcement details remain under development as questions arise over how to target major importers without provoking trade disputes.
• Russia’s federal budget relies heavily on oil and gas exports, leaving its revenues at risk if the duties are imposed.
• Analysts warn that curbing Russian oil flows risks driving up global energy prices and straining relations with top buyers such as China and India.