Tropical Storm Vance Weakens Off Mexico Coast

Forecasters say its expected northward turn will prolong heavy rain and flood risks along western Mexico, with strong coastal surf and pulsing gap winds threatening mariners.

Overview

Vance is a weakening tropical storm centered roughly 230–240 nautical miles south‑southwest of Manzanillo with maximum sustained winds near 55 knots as of Monday.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts a turn to the northwest then north this week with Vance becoming post‑tropical or a remnant low by Thursday or Friday and dissipating by late week.
The storm is expected to drop 2 to 4 inches of rain across Colima, Nayarit, Sinaloa and parts of Michoacán, Jalisco and Durango with isolated 7‑inch totals that could trigger flooding and deadly mudslides in steep terrain.
Swell from Vance will produce life‑threatening surf and dangerous rip currents along southern and southwestern Mexican shores, and authorities have warned mariners to avoid affected coastal waters.
A tight pressure gradient is producing north‑to‑northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec that have pulsed to near‑gale or gale force and are forecast to pulse through the week; Vance’s weakening is tied to westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid‑level air, and the active Eastern Pacific season is linked to a strong El Niño.