Overview
- Mexico’s meteorological service confirmed on September 30 that Octave formed from Tropical Depression Fifteen‑E.
- By Tuesday, the center was about 1,495 km south‑southwest of Cabo San Lucas with sustained winds near 65 km/h, gusts to 85 km/h, moving northwest at roughly 7 km/h.
- SMN and Conagua reported no direct danger to Mexico for now, though heavy rain, strong winds and high surf remain possible for southern and western coastal states.
- Forecasts from SMN and the U.S. National Hurricane Center indicate gradual strengthening later this week, with moderate to strong wind shear limiting rapid intensification and typical track uncertainty persisting.
- Authorities are also monitoring a separate low south of Oaxaca with a 20% chance of development in 48 hours and 80% in seven days, which could become Priscilla.