Overview

• The SMN expects very strong to intense rainfall of 75 to 150 mm in Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Campeche, with strong to very strong totals in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Puebla.
• Narda was classified as a tropical storm offshore with sustained winds near 65 km/h, and its bands are enhancing heavy rain in Oaxaca and Guerrero along with coastal wind gusts and rough seas.
• Elevated surf of 2.5 to 3.5 meters is forecast for Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero, with waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters along Oaxaca and Chiapas.
• Monsoon moisture, low‑pressure channels and the subtropical jet will generate showers and storms from Baja California and the northwest to the center and southeast, with the SMN flagging heavy rain potential in 22 states on Monday.
• Officials warn of lightning, possible hail, flash floods, river rises and landslides, and note the 2025–2026 cold‑front outlook calls for 48 systems, including five fronts expected in October.