Overview

• Tropical Storm Lorenzo is about 1,300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving northwest at roughly 11–15 knots with top winds near 50–60 mph.
• National Hurricane Center forecasts show a turn north then northeast this week, with the cyclone transitioning to a non-tropical system by late weekend.
• New guidance from some models introduces an eastward turn followed by a southward hook that could trap the storm under the subtropical ridge, increasing track uncertainty.
• Satellite and microwave imagery depict a small, developing core with deeper convection near the center but much of the thunderstorm activity displaced to the east.
• Intensity outlooks diverge as reduced wind shear may support strengthening but dry air and the Saharan Air Layer could suppress growth, with projections ranging from weakening to a Category 1–2 hurricane.