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yesterday

Tropical Storm Lorena Strengthens Near Baja, Poised to Reach Hurricane Status

Tropical-storm watches cover the west coast of Baja California Sur with the track still uncertain.

An NHC graphic shows the system's expected path.
tropical storm lorena at 2350 utc on september 2 2025 goes-east
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lorena as of 1540 UTC on September 1, 2025. Credit: GOES-19, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
An NHC graphic depicts the expected path of Hurricane Kiko.

Overview

  • At the 11 p.m. MST advisory, Lorena was about 155 miles south of Cabo San Lucas with sustained winds near 70 mph, moving northwest at 14 mph.
  • Forecasters say the system could intensify to a hurricane within hours given very warm waters and favorable environmental conditions.
  • A tropical-storm watch is in effect from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro as the center is expected to track parallel to the coast Wednesday and Thursday and could approach on Friday.
  • Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local totals up to 15 inches, could trigger flash flooding and mudslides in Baja California Sur, and heavy rain risk extends into Arizona from late Wednesday through Friday.
  • Model guidance diverges on the path, with GFS trending faster and closer to land and ECMWF keeping the system farther offshore, leaving forecast confidence lower than usual.