Overview

• SMN/Conagua reports Lorena could intensify to a hurricane west‑southwest of Baja California Sur, with its circulation enhancing very heavy rainfall over the northwest and west.
• Official guidance calls for 75–150 mm in Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango and Sinaloa, 50–75 mm in parts of the west and center, and 25–50 mm in additional central and eastern states including Mexico City.
• The first cold front remains stationary over the northeast, producing 40–60 km/h gusts and supporting showers and strong storms in Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
• For the Valley of Mexico, forecasters expect strong to very strong storms with lightning and possible hail, with warnings about urban flooding, landslides and reduced visibility.
• Coastal hazards include 70–80 km/h winds with 100–120 km/h gusts and 4.5–5.5 m seas off Baja California Sur, with 2–3 m waves extending to Sinaloa and Nayarit, prompting calls to monitor official updates.