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Tropical Storm Jerry Poised to Become Hurricane, Brush Northern Leewards Before Turning North

Forecasters expect a northward turn to keep the worst conditions offshore.

The National Hurricane Center's first official track forecast for Tropical Storm Jerry, the tenth-named storm of the 2025 hurricane season. The cone shows only the likely path of the center of the storm and not its full impacts, and the center of the storm could pass outside the cone.
Tropical Storm Jerry's cone of uncertainty as of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025. (NHC)
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Overview

  • As of the NHC 5 a.m. advisory, Jerry was about 890 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph.
  • Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the northern Leeward Islands as the system approaches.
  • Jerry is forecast to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday, with its core near or north of the northern Leewards late Thursday into Friday before a turn north.
  • Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to about 125 miles, with 2–4 inches of rain, gusty winds, and heavy surf expected in the islands and surf reaching the Greater Antilles on Friday.
  • A trough in the Bay of Campeche has a 10% chance of development, though heavy rain and gusty winds are likely in southern Mexico later today into early Thursday.