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3h ago

Tropical Storm Jerry Nears Leeward Islands With 65 mph Winds as Hurricane Likely Late Week

Forecast guidance points to a northward turn that keeps the core offshore of the U.S. coastline.

This image shows the tropical hazards outlook through Oct. 28 from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. The map highlights areas with increased tropical development potential in the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean Sea, and eastern Pacific Ocean as the Central American Gyre — a broad, slowly rotating system of low atmospheric pressure — becomes more active.
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Overview

  • Tropical Storm Jerry was about 395 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands early Thursday, moving west-northwest near 20 mph and expected to pass near or just northeast of the islands later today into tonight.
  • Tropical-storm watches remain in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe and nearby islands.
  • Two to four inches of rain with localized flash flooding, gusty winds and expanding swells are expected across the Leewards, with dangerous surf and rip currents spreading toward the Greater Antilles.
  • Despite moderate to strong wind shear slowing rapid intensification, the NHC forecasts gradual strengthening with Jerry reaching hurricane status by late Friday or Saturday, though model guidance still varies on peak strength.
  • NHC officials say no direct U.S. impacts are expected, with elevated rip current risk along the East Coast from a separate coastal low and distant Jerry, and Bermuda could be affected depending on the eventual track; NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are flying the storm to refine forecasts.