Overview

• The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. ET advisory lists maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as the storm moves west near 24 mph about 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, making it the 10th named storm of 2025.
• A decrease in forward speed with a turn to the west-northwest is expected, placing the center near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday into Friday.
• Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is likely to reach hurricane strength within the next day or two given favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions.
• Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands Thursday, producing life‑threatening surf and rip currents, and tropical storm watches could be issued.
• Separately, a trough near the Yucatán and Bay of Campeche has a low (10%) chance of development but will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Yucatán Peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico this week.