Overview

• Gabrielle remains a poorly organized 50 mph storm about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west‑northwest near 15 mph while battling wind shear and dry Saharan air.
• The National Hurricane Center expects little change in strength over the next 48 hours, followed by gradual intensification to Category 1 early next week, with forecast confidence still described as low.
• Guidance shows a recurvature to the north over open water, keeping the center well east of Bermuda next week and avoiding the United States, though increased surf and rip‑current risks are possible.
• Forecasters are also watching a tropical wave emerging off Africa with about a 20% chance of development in the next seven days, while another central Atlantic disturbance has dropped to 0%.
• Gabrielle ended a rare late‑summer lull from August 29 to September 16, and unusually warm Atlantic waters could support strengthening despite hostile upper‑level winds.