Overview

• Gabrielle remains over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 50–52 mph and no direct U.S. land impacts expected at this time.
• NHC guidance projects a turn northwest then north and a likely upgrade to hurricane strength by Sunday or Monday, with some forecasts indicating Category 2 intensity early next week.
• Dry air and moderate to strong wind shear have limited organization so far, though thunderstorms are beginning to consolidate closer to the center.
• Model consensus keeps the core well east of Bermuda, where the NHC puts the chance of tropical-storm-force winds near 20–25%, and hazardous surf and rip currents are expected for Bermuda, the northern Leewards, Puerto Rico and parts of the U.S. East Coast.
• Gabrielle ends a roughly three-week Atlantic lull as the season’s seventh named storm, and forecasters are also monitoring Invest 96E southeast of Mexico with high odds of development.