Overview

• As of late Wednesday, Gabrielle held 50 mph winds about 900–990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and was moving northwest near 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
• The NHC expects little change in strength over the next two days followed by gradual intensification, with a hurricane possible by Sunday, though wind shear and dry air could slow organization.
• Forecast guidance shows a northwest track turning north over open water, and the timing of that turn will determine how close the storm comes to Bermuda next week.
• Direct U.S. impacts are not anticipated based on current guidance, though increased surf and rip currents could develop along parts of the Caribbean and East Coast.
• Gabrielle ends a rare nearly three-week lull in Atlantic storms and is the season’s seventh named system, with two trailing tropical waves near the Cabo Verde region carrying low (10–20%) development odds over seven days.