Overview

• Gabrielle is moving northwest in the central Atlantic with sustained winds near 85 km/h and is expected to curve north, passing east of Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.
• National Hurricane Center guidance calls for gradual intensification to hurricane strength this weekend, though forecast confidence drops beyond roughly 72 hours.
• Most model ensembles keep the center well east of Bermuda, but the island should monitor for tropical-storm-force gusts on the fringe, heavy rain, and dangerous seas.
• No direct U.S. mainland impacts are projected, but large swells and rip currents are likely along portions of the East Coast next week, with hazardous surf also possible in the northeastern Caribbean.
• Forecasters attribute slow organization to dry air and moderate-to-strong wind shear, and they are also watching a separate disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands with low near-term development odds and no immediate land threat.