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2w ago

Tropical Storm Erin to Become Season’s First Hurricane and Threaten Caribbean

Erin is forecast to reach hurricane strength by Friday over warmer waters, leaving Caribbean islands on alert for high winds, heavy surf, rip currents.

A forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erin's path toward the U.S.
Image
The weather satellite image of the tropical disturbance near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula was taken Wednesday. This disturbance will move into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.
In this weather satellite photo of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula taken Wednesday morning, a label has been superimposed to show where a tropical wave of low atmospheric pressure is producing thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea. This wave is expected to enter the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico and send tropical downpours to Central and South Texas by the weekend.

Overview

  • As of Wednesday morning, Erin was a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 20 mph.
  • The National Hurricane Center projects gradual strengthening beginning Thursday and expects Erin to reach hurricane strength by late Thursday or early Friday, with major (Category 3) status possible by the weekend north of Puerto Rico.
  • Most reliable forecast models show a northward turn that would steer Erin away from the U.S. East Coast, though small shifts in the track keep the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands at risk of tropical-storm to hurricane conditions.
  • Swells generated by Erin are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents across Caribbean shores and along U.S. East Coast beaches regardless of the storm’s center.
  • Erin’s precursor thunderstorms caused deadly flash flooding in Cabo Verde—killing at least eight and prompting a state of emergency—and the NHC is also monitoring two other low-probability disturbances in the northwest Caribbean and Atlantic.