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2w ago

Tropical Storm Erin Set to Become Hurricane Following Southward Model Shift

Recent southward shifts in model projections raise the likelihood of Erin skirting the northern Leeward Islands this weekend with potential close passes to Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Storm clouds in Magic Kingdom
An updated forecast map for Tropical Storm Erin.
Image
Computer models are showing more confidence that Tropical Storm Erin will intensify into a hurricane but turn north before reaching the U.S. coast. (weathernerds.org)

Overview

  • Erin currently has maximum sustained winds near 45 mph while moving west at about 22–23 mph across the central Atlantic with no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
  • The National Hurricane Center forecasts Erin will strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday, August 14, and intensify into a Category 3 storm by Sunday, August 17 as it crosses warm waters with low wind shear.
  • Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor forecasts for potential heavy surf, rip currents, rainfall and gusty winds this weekend.
  • As a long-track Cape Verde–type system, Erin’s rapid intensification and eventual northward turn hinge on the evolving positions of the Bermuda High and mid-latitude troughs.
  • Forecasters are also tracking a surface trough near Louisiana for heavy rain and flash flooding and a subtropical low near Nova Scotia with minimal chances for further development.