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Tropical Storm Erin Forecast to Become Major Hurricane This Weekend

Rapid intensification is expected to boost dangerous surf and rip current risks along western Atlantic shores

Image
A graphic from the NHC shows the system's expected path.
This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Erin in the Atlantic on Thursday morning, Aug. 14, 2025. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Forecast models, known as the “spaghetti models,” are in strong agreement that Tropical Storm Erin will turn north as a major Category 3 hurricane before the U.S. east coast.

Overview

  • Tropical Storm Erin is centered about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving west at 17 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph as of the NHC’s 5 a.m. Thursday advisory.
  • The National Hurricane Center projects Erin will reach hurricane strength by Friday and intensify to a Category 3 storm with up to 125 mph winds by early next week.
  • Forecast models indicate greater-than-normal uncertainty in Erin’s track beyond the weekend, leaving potential impacts on the Bahamas, Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast unresolved.
  • There are no watches or warnings in effect, but officials advise residents of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor the storm and ready coastal preparedness plans.
  • Swells generated by Erin are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents along Caribbean and U.S. Atlantic beaches starting this weekend.