Overview

• National Hurricane Center assigns a 90% chance that the broad low south of Mexico will develop into a tropical depression or storm within two days.
• If it strengthens, the system would be named Alvin, becoming the first Northern Hemisphere cyclone of 2025 and marking an unusually early Pacific season start.
• Forecasters project the disturbance to move west-northwest at about 10 mph, with locally heavy rainfall possible in Oaxaca and Jalisco.
• Seasonal forecasts call for above-average activity with 14–18 named storms (7–10 hurricanes) in the Eastern Pacific and 13–19 named storms in the Atlantic.
• Climatologists warn that emerging La Niña conditions later this year could further boost tropical storm formation and intensity.