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Tropical Storm Alvin Expected to Form Near Mexico in Next 48 Hours

An upcoming storm could deliver drenching rains to Mexico’s southwest coast months before the Atlantic season officially kicks off.

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows the anticipated path should a tropical storm form.
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Overview

  • National Hurricane Center assigns a 90% chance that the broad low south of Mexico will develop into a tropical depression or storm within two days.
  • If it strengthens, the system would be named Alvin, becoming the first Northern Hemisphere cyclone of 2025 and marking an unusually early Pacific season start.
  • Forecasters project the disturbance to move west-northwest at about 10 mph, with locally heavy rainfall possible in Oaxaca and Jalisco.
  • Seasonal forecasts call for above-average activity with 14–18 named storms (7–10 hurricanes) in the Eastern Pacific and 13–19 named storms in the Atlantic.
  • Climatologists warn that emerging La Niña conditions later this year could further boost tropical storm formation and intensity.