Overview

• Mexico’s weather service confirmed late Monday the formation of Depresión Tropical Doce‑E off Colima and Michoacán with sustained winds near 55 km/h, gusts to 75 km/h and a west‑northwest motion around 22 km/h, bringing intense rain and 2–3 m surf to Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero.
• Official guidance indicates potential development into a tropical cyclone as it organizes, with very heavy to intense rain of 75–150 mm forecast across parts of the northwest, west and north, plus wind gusts that could reach about 90 km/h and seas up to 4.5–6.5 m later this week.
• Forecast tracks place the system near Baja California Sur by Wednesday and moving across Baja California Sur, the Gulf of California and Sonora Thursday to Friday, heightening risks of flooding, landslides and dangerous coastal conditions.
• Sonora’s Protección Civil issued a statewide alert for intense to very intense rain up to 150 mm and wind gusts above 65 km/h, with concurrent heat pushing daytime highs near or above 40–45 °C in parts of the region.
• Mexico City and Estado de México are expected to see afternoon and evening storms on Tuesday during the school return, with 25–75 mm possible and local authorities warning of urban flooding and drainage issues.