Overview

• SMN’s 15:00 report places the center 95 km south‑southwest of Punta Maldonado and 195 km southeast of Acapulco with sustained winds of 55 km/h, gusts to 75 km/h, moving west‑northwest at 9 km/h.
• CONAGUA estimates a 90% chance the system becomes Tropical Cyclone “Mario” within 48 hours, with forecasts indicating potential Category 1 strength by Sunday west of Cabo Corrientes.
• Bands from the system and interacting disturbances will bring very heavy rain of 75–150 mm to Guerrero, Oaxaca, Jalisco (southeast), Colima, Michoacán (northwest), Puebla (southeast), Veracruz (center and south), Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and western Yucatán.
• Coastal hazards include wind gusts of 40–60 km/h, waves of 2–3 meters and a risk of waterspouts off Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca, with threats of flash flooding and landslides in mountainous areas.
• Mexico City authorities activated a Red Alert for Xochimilco and Tlalpan and issued Orange/Yellow alerts elsewhere as strong, prolonged showers with lightning and possible hail extend into Friday.