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11h ago

Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Gulf

Record-warm Gulf waters raise the chance of rapid intensification with watches expected as the system nears the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

Forecasters give a developing system in the Gulf of America an 80% chance of developing within the next seven days.
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is projected to travel to the east-northeast over the next few days.
© NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-19
Once Isaias begins to move northern, it will begin to battle lots of wind shear which will weaken it before a potential landfall. (WPEC)

Overview

  • Tropical Depression Nine was designated by the National Hurricane Center after rapid organization, and the NHC has begun advisories and scheduled NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance flights to sample the storm.
  • The NHC and several forecast models predict the depression will become Tropical Storm Isaias and could reach hurricane strength by Thursday or Friday, though model runs disagree on timing and peak intensity.
  • Forecasters say the clearest and most immediate hazard is heavy tropical rainfall, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of the Southeast under an elevated flash‑flood risk for late week.
  • Watches and warnings are expected soon for portions of the northern Gulf Coast and interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana are urged to monitor official updates as landfall timing could occur late Friday into Saturday.
  • This development comes during an unusually quiet Atlantic season driven by a strong El Niño, but record-high Gulf sea surface temperatures increase the chance of rapid strengthening and make hurricane‑hunter data critical to narrowing the forecast.