Overview
- The National Hurricane Center now puts development odds at high levels, including about a 90% chance within 48 hours, as Invest 98L consolidates with 30–40 mph winds but no closed circulation yet.
- Heavy rain and gusty winds have affected the Windward and Leeward Islands and are possible next across the ABC Islands, with rough seas and localized flooding risks.
- The system is forecast to slow in the central Caribbean by midweek, when a tropical depression is likely and Tropical Storm Melissa could form, with some guidance showing potential hurricane strength later.
- Most model scenarios favor a north to northeast turn toward Hispaniola late this week, though a lower-probability track keeps the system farther west near Cuba or the western Caribbean.
- Near-term risk to the U.S. mainland is considered low, while interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba are urged to monitor for heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous surf.