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TrendForce Lifts DRAM Q4 Price Outlook as DDR5 Profit Seen Topping HBM3e in 2026

Surging cloud AI orders are reinforcing supplier pricing power.

Overview

  • TrendForce now expects traditional DRAM contract prices to rise 18%–23% in the fourth quarter, citing stronger buyer demand and firmer supplier quotes.
  • Spot-market memory prices spiked in mid-October, with average DDR5 16GB and DDR4 16GB modules up 20.59% and 11.11% week over week and roughly 59% and 43% month over month.
  • The firm projects DDR5 profitability to surpass HBM3e in 2026 as DDR5 prices climb and the profit gap narrows, potentially reshaping capacity allocation decisions.
  • AI and cloud service providers are driving a step-change in server memory needs, with AI servers requiring far more DRAM per system than conventional deployments.
  • Supply has tightened as major makers prioritize HBM and DDR5 over DDR4, while reseller stockpiling since Q2 has squeezed spot availability, lifting retail prices in places like Hangzhou and fueling a rally in storage-chip stocks on October 29.