Overview

• At Monday’s open, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed about two basis points to 4.247%, the 30-year yield rose over four basis points to 4.852%, and the two-year yield increased one basis point to 3.716%.
• The U.S. Treasury this week plans to auction $125 billion of new three-, 10- and 30-year notes in its largest long-term debt issuance since May.
• Swaps tied to Federal Reserve policy meeting dates indicate that investors still see roughly an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the September gathering.
• The yield premium between 30-year and five-year Treasuries widened to 106 basis points, marking the largest spread since the 2023 banking crisis.
• Investors are still absorbing the BLS’s 258,000-job downward revision for May and June along with the firing of its commissioner and the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.