Overview
- With the government shutdown in its third week, the data blackout persists and the CPI release has been pushed back nine days.
- Treasury moves flipped on Friday: the 10-year fell as low as roughly 3.94% early, then rebounded to about 4.00%, leaving it still on track for a third straight weekly decline.
- The late-session bounce followed signs of easing trade tension after President Trump called steep China tariffs unsustainable and confirmed an upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping.
- Money markets largely price a 25-basis-point cut at the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested support for easing while cautioning on inflation risks.
- Investors are watching remarks from Governors Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman, as credit headlines including Zions’ $50 million charge-off and a Western Alliance fraud claim sharpen focus on downside risk.