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Treasury Increases Long‑Term Buybacks but U.S. Yields Keep Rising

Markets say the purchases are too small to offset higher global long‑term rates driven by large U.S. deficits, shifting investor demand, and rising inflation expectations.

Overview

  • The U.S. Treasury announced a stepped‑up program of long‑term debt repurchases, publicizing at least $4 billion per operation to provide market liquidity.
  • The buyback news briefly pushed 10‑year and 30‑year Treasury yields lower but the effect faded within about 24 hours as the 10‑year returned near 4.71% and the 30‑year rose toward 5.23%.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said purchases could be larger than the announced minimum and signaled further action, and he also flagged plans for a fiscal initiative to address borrowing costs.
  • Analysts and investors say the operations lack the scale to counter structural drivers — U.S. public debt above $40 trillion, a deficit near 6% of GDP, reduced central‑bank buying and changing buyer composition — that are lifting long yields globally.
  • Higher very‑long forward rates, near 5.85% in U.S. forwards, raise the cost of capital for long‑horizon projects in Mexico and elsewhere and increase pressure on policymakers to bolster regulatory certainty, public infrastructure and targeted financing tools.