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Treasury Chief Predicts 'Gigantic' U.S. Tax-Refund Season in 2026

Retroactive tax cuts with unchanged withholding are expected to return over-withheld wages at filing.

Overview

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said many households could receive $1,000 to $2,000 when they file 2025 returns next year.
  • The Tax Foundation estimates average refunds near $3,800 and attributes about $144 billion in 2025 individual tax reductions to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Officials and analysts point to retroactive provisions and IRS withholding tables that were not fully adjusted as the drivers of larger payouts.
  • Bessent said many workers will update their withholding in early 2026, which would raise take-home pay after the one-time refund boost.
  • Key changes under the law include higher child tax credit and standard deduction, a raised SALT cap, and new or expanded deductions for auto loan interest, tip income, overtime pay, and certain seniors.