Overview
- In 2025 the Bloomberg US Treasury Index returned about 6%, with short maturities rallying the most and the 30‑year yield ticking slightly higher.
- The 10‑year yield stayed in a 3.86% to 4.81% range, its tightest band since 2021.
- The Federal Reserve delivered three rate cuts starting in September as labor‑market signals weakened, driving two‑ and five‑year yields lower.
- Policy shocks steered the curve, with the April 2 tariff rollout weighing on growth expectations and a May 16 Moody’s downgrade pushing the 30‑year above 5%.
- Trading to start 2026 saw long bonds fall and the 30‑year near 4.88%, while a six‑week shutdown’s data gaps, including the scrapped October CPI and first‑ever TIPS fallback, continue to cloud the path for yields.