Training Rains Target MO–IL Corridor With Local Flood Risk as Northern Blizzard Conditions Emerge
Forecasters expect mostly minor flooding given dry soils and warm ground despite brief 1–2 inch per hour downpours.
Overview
- Weather Prediction Center MPD #1281 flags isolated flash flooding through late morning from northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa into north-central Illinois and northwestern Indiana, with isolated 2–3 inch totals in a few hours.
- Strengthening low-level flow ahead of a ~998 mb Kansas low is focusing a narrow, training rain axis, with 30–50 kt at 850 mb transporting a moist plume with precipitable water near 1.1–1.4 inches.
- WPC notes flood impacts should be limited to urban and other sensitive low-lying spots due to below-average soil moisture and minimal frost depth.
- Storm Prediction Center MD 2277 highlights isolated elevated storms from northeastern Missouri into central Illinois capable of small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, with only a 5% chance of watch issuance.
- SPC MD 2278 calls for heavy snow near east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin around midday near 1 inch per hour, with blowing snow and occasional blizzard conditions in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.