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Train of Atmospheric Rivers Targets Pacific Northwest, Strongest Surge Early Next Week

A blocking high over California is steering a multi-day moisture plume into Washington and Oregon, raising flood potential on several western Washington rivers.

Overview

  • The National Weather Service warns that rounds of increasingly impactful rainfall begin Friday, with snow levels near 5,000–6,000 feet and risks that include river flooding and landslides.
  • Forecast sequence: an initial soaking delivers 2–4 inches to the Cascades, a weaker weekend pulse follows, then a Monday–Wednesday event emerges as the strongest with core IVT near or above 1,000 kg m−1 s−1 and 5–10 inches in mountain zones.
  • River guidance points to the Snoqualmie, Snohomish, Skykomish and Skagit reaching flood stage next week, as NWRFC projections show multiple gauges exceeding minor and some near moderate flood stage.
  • Seattle and nearby cities could log at least a chance of rain for 10 straight days with totals around 4 inches, while the highest peaks may collect 15–20 inches of precipitation and more than 10 feet of summit snow at Mount Rainier and Mount Baker.
  • Most of Northern California stays relatively warm and dry under the ridge, with only light rain in Del Norte and Humboldt counties and temperatures from the Bay Area to Tahoe running roughly 10°F above normal as moisture spreads inland to the northern Rockies.